- The Texas McCombs Salem Center in [[Austin]], [[Texas]] is attracting potential economists regardless of their qualifications through a [[forecasting]] [[tournament]] hosted on [[Manifold Markets]].
	- Richard [[Hanania]], the [[policy]] researcher, is strongly associated with the Salem Center and this forecasting initiative.
	- For the question 'US GDP Growth 1% or More in 2022 Q3':
	  collapsed:: true
		- Checked quarterly sales of [[Amazon]] and [[Walmart]].
		- Checked previous quarterly [[GDP]] [[growth]] in the United States for the last twenty one years.
		- Input 'how do [[purchasing]] [[habits]] change when gdp decreases?' in [[Elicit]], the GPT-powered [[research]] assistant.
			- 'How Economic [[Contraction]]s and [[Expansion]]s Affect Expenditure Patterns' seemed like the paper most immediately relevant, with 116 citations at the time of search.
				- Household spending during [[recession]] is typically tracked with an [[Engel curve]].
				- How is [[spending]] on positional goods, or goods that are used to signal [[status]] in a [[hierarchy]], stay the same during [[expansion]] and [[contraction]] of the things made by a group?
					- [[Adam Smith]] pointed out that women in England seemed more likely to feel [[shame]] at not having nicer dresses than women in Scotland.
					- Along with having better quality of [[life]], it was suggested that people spend [[money]] to show that they have made themselves higher on the social [[hierarchy]].
					- While people with more [[money]] within a nation reported being happier than people with less, people who made less money in other nations were still [[happy]]- so long as they had more money than their [[peers]].
					- Relatively less [[power]] increases [[spending]] to keep [[status]] up.
						- People often use [[debt]] to [[pay]] for things that they can use to show that they have the [[status]] they want.
							- [[Schor]] says that as people spent more time watching [[television]], they started trying to keep up with the upper middle class and [[rich]] lifestyles they saw on the television, instead of their [[neighbors]].
							  collapsed:: true
								- In a place where people are paying for things to pay for [[status]], when the [[rich]] increase [[spending]], the group below them also increases spending, and so on, until the chain hits the ground.
									- [[Jewelry]], prestigious [[cars]], [[clothing]], [[restaurants]] and [[houses]] are considering positional goods, or things people buy to show they have [[status]].
			- Checked [[Google]] [[trends]] for a particular Rivian model, Samsung Watch, Toyota RAV4, H&M, GQ, Wirecutter, 'food near me', 'pizza near me', and 'sushi near me'. Assuming trends in search may reflect trends in purchasing.
			  collapsed:: true
				- The movement of the lines did not indicate dropping interest in anywhere except 'sushi near me'.
			- https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a40558214/2022-first-half-tesla-sales-up-46-percent-globally/
			  collapsed:: true
				- While Tesla [[sales]] were up globally, they were down in the United States. Sales were also down for Ford, VW, Audi, and Porsche.
			- Checked Signet Jeweler's revenue. They report a 26.9% increase in comparison to last year.
			  collapsed:: true
				- Writer does not say why or how the jewelry [[market]] will decrease, other than assuming a repeat of the 2007 recession and the corresponding crash in jewelry sales: https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2022/03/21/jewelry-market-must-prepare-for-a-steep-drop-but-signet-jewelers-is-ready/?sh=38ddd03c330f
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	- For the question [['Will [[Russia]] control [[Kherson]] on 10/31/22']]:
		- Searched 'Херсо́н' on Twitter and read latest tweets.
			- Stray comments suggest that the population is not as sympathetic to Russian occupation as the population is in the [[Donbass]].
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