#+TITLE: Prediction

Notes on forecasting, prediction and prioritization.
[[https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxOTQ4ODUwNiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzIwNDIwNTAsIl8iOiI3Mk5YMiIsImlhdCI6MTYxMjIyNTkzMSwiZXhwIjoxNjEyMjI5NTMxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItODkxMjAiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0._gkqwpF7-FhmJHAAhow6ve8QyeY59tlBmHqwOv0JnBw][Prediction markets]]: there isn't yet a perfect one that has stakes involved, because that would be illegal. Polymarket: USDC stable coin with covid related bets.