-
The Texas McCombs Salem Center in [[Austin]], [[Texas]] is attracting potential economists regardless of their qualifications through a [[forecasting]] [[tournament]] hosted on [[Manifold Markets]].
- Richard [[Hanania]], the [[policy]] researcher, is strongly associated with the Salem Center and this forecasting initiative.
-
For the question ‘US GDP Growth 1% or More in 2022 Q3’:
collapsed:: true
- Checked quarterly sales of [[Amazon]] and [[Walmart]].
- Checked previous quarterly [[GDP]] [[growth]] in the United States for the last twenty one years.
-
Input ‘how do [[purchasing]] [[habits]] change when gdp decreases?’ in [[Elicit]], the GPT-powered [[research]] assistant.
-
‘How Economic [[Contraction]]s and [[Expansion]]s Affect Expenditure Patterns’ seemed like the paper most immediately relevant, with 116 citations at the time of search.
- Household spending during [[recession]] is typically tracked with an [[Engel curve]].
-
How is [[spending]] on positional goods, or goods that are used to signal [[status]] in a [[hierarchy]], stay the same during [[expansion]] and [[contraction]] of the things made by a group?
- [[Adam Smith]] pointed out that women in England seemed more likely to feel [[shame]] at not having nicer dresses than women in Scotland.
- Along with having better quality of [[life]], it was suggested that people spend [[money]] to show that they have made themselves higher on the social [[hierarchy]].
- While people with more [[money]] within a nation reported being happier than people with less, people who made less money in other nations were still [[happy]]- so long as they had more money than their [[peers]].
-
Relatively less [[power]] increases [[spending]] to keep [[status]] up.
-
People often use [[debt]] to [[pay]] for things that they can use to show that they have the [[status]] they want.
-
[[Schor]] says that as people spent more time watching [[television]], they started trying to keep up with the upper middle class and [[rich]] lifestyles they saw on the television, instead of their [[neighbors]].
collapsed:: true
-
In a place where people are paying for things to pay for [[status]], when the [[rich]] increase [[spending]], the group below them also increases spending, and so on, until the chain hits the ground.
-
Checked [[Google]] [[trends]] for a particular Rivian model, Samsung Watch, Toyota RAV4, H&M, GQ, Wirecutter, ‘food near me’, ‘pizza near me’, and ‘sushi near me’. Assuming trends in search may reflect trends in purchasing.
collapsed:: true
- The movement of the lines did not indicate dropping interest in anywhere except ‘sushi near me’.
-
https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a40558214/2022-first-half-tesla-sales-up-46-percent-globally/
collapsed:: true
- While Tesla [[sales]] were up globally, they were down in the United States. Sales were also down for Ford, VW, Audi, and Porsche.
-
Checked Signet Jeweler’s revenue. They report a 26.9% increase in comparison to last year.
collapsed:: true
-
-
For the question [[‘Will [[Russia]] control [[Kherson]] on 10/31/22’]]:
-
Searched ‘Херсо́н’ on Twitter and read latest tweets.
- Stray comments suggest that the population is not as sympathetic to Russian occupation as the population is in the [[Donbass]].
-