📚 node [[a big little idea called ergodicity (or the ultimate guide to russian roulette)]]
📕 text contributed by @protopian

A Big Little Idea Called Ergodicity (Or The Ultimate Guide to Russian Roulette)

rw-book-cover

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Highlights

  • The probabilities of success from the collection of people do not apply to one person.
  • In non-ergodic contexts the concept of “expected returns” is effectively meaningless.
  • Many “irrational” behaviors or “cognitive biases” are actually individuals realizing that a system is non-ergodic and not optimizing for expected value.
  • Antifragility is a function of combining a multitude of entities so that each one of them is non-ergodic but the ensemble is ergodic.
  • frequently correlated than anti-correlated.
  • Vladimir Lenin put it “There are decades in which nothing happens and weeks in which decades happen.”

A Big Little Idea Called Ergodicity (Or The Ultimate Guide to Russian Roulette)

rw-book-cover

Metadata

Highlights

  • In an ergodic scenario, the average outcome of the group is the same as the average outcome of the individual over time.
  • In a non-ergodic system, the individual, over time, does not get the average outcome of the group.
  • A way to identify an ergodic situation is to ask do I get the same result if I: 1. look at one individual’s trajectory across time2 2. look at a bunch of individual’s trajectories at a single point in time If yes: ergodic. If not: non-ergodic.
  • If you graph an antifragile system, there is limited downside and unlimited upside. Going to cocktail parties is antifragile – you can only lose a bit of time (limited downside) but you could meet someone who will change your life (unlimited upside).
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