Why Is It So Hard to Be Rational?

Metadata

• Author: [[Joshua Rothman]]
• Full Title: Why Is It So Hard to Be Rational?
• Category: #articles
• URL: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/08/23/why-is-it-so-hard-to-be-rational

Highlights

• There are many ways to explain Bayesian reasoning—doctors learn it one way and statisticians another—but the basic idea is simple. When new information comes in, you don’t want it to replace old information wholesale. Instead, you want it to modify what you already know to an appropriate degree. The degree of modification depends both on your confidence in your preëxisting knowledge and on the value of the new data. Bayesian reasoners begin with what they call the “prior” probability of something being true, and then find out if they need to adjust it.
  • Tags: [[reason]] [[rethinking]]
• I’ve long admired my friend Greg for his rationality, but I’ve since updated my views. I think it’s not rationality, as such, that makes him curious, truthful, honest, careful, perceptive, and fair, but the reverse.
  • Tags: [[rational thinking]] [[favorite]]
• The realities of rationality are humbling. Know things; want things; use what you know to get what you want. It sounds like a simple formula. But, in truth, it maps out a series of escalating challenges. In search of facts, we must make do with probabilities. Unable to know it all for ourselves, we must rely on others who care enough to know. We must act while we are still uncertain, and we must act in time—sometimes individually, but often together. For all this to happen, rationality is necessary, but not sufficient. Thinking straight is just part of the work.
  • Tags: [[rational thinking]]